在网上看到一个帖子，作者不详。用最简洁生动的方法讲解了次贷危机和A股股民：
有一天，一位其貌不扬的男士，带着一位十分艳丽的OL，来到Causeway Bay一家LV店。他为OL选了一价值6万5元的LV handbag。
付款时，男士掏出支票本，十分潇洒地签了一张支票。店员有些为难，因为这对夫妇是第一次来店购物。
男士看穿了店员的心思，十分冷静地对店员说： "我感觉到，您担心这是一张是空头支票，对吗？今天是周六，银行关门。我建议您把支票和handbag都留下。等到星期一支票兑现之后，再请你们把 handbag 送到这位小姐的府上。您看这样行不行？"
店员放了下心来，欣然地接受了这个建议，并且大方的承诺，递送handbag的费用由该店承担，他本人将会亲自把这件事情给办妥。
星期一，店员拿着支票去银行入账，支票果真是张空头支票！愤怒的店员打电话给那位顾客，客户对他说： "这没有什么要紧啊！你和我都没有损失。上星期六的晚上我已经同那个女孩上床了！哦，多谢您的合作。"
这个故事揭示了次贷危机的本质。人们在对未来收益充满良好预期的时候，对于可能加大风险缺乏防范意识。美女认为周一六万多LV就到家了，自然也就放松了警惕，认为ONS的投资是值得的，对于投入产出的预期是建立在一个具有巨大不确定风险的情况下的。而对未来收益预期的包装则是这些投资机构最擅长的事情。中国的股民大多跟这个美女一样，所以亏钱基本上是活该，没有这些人，股市赚谁的钱呢。而媒体和分析家们，往往在其中扮演了LV店员的配合角色。
OL：Office Lady：白领丽人
Causeway Bay：香港铜锣湾
ONS=419=One night standing：一夜情
Saturday, October 25, 2008
interesting
开战纪录7
10.24.2008 8 vs 9
or 9 vs 9? The last round, I suspect I might have miscounted the score, I may have missed a 5 or 10 somewhere...
Anyway, we were ahead for the majority of the night, and the other side got ahead at the last minutes with super super strong cards, like 5 kings, 5 8s and etc.
胜之不武！
全靠牛牌！
哼哼！！
or 9 vs 9? The last round, I suspect I might have miscounted the score, I may have missed a 5 or 10 somewhere...
Anyway, we were ahead for the majority of the night, and the other side got ahead at the last minutes with super super strong cards, like 5 kings, 5 8s and etc.
胜之不武！
全靠牛牌！
哼哼！！
Thursday, October 23, 2008
Let me remove my old post... WITH THIS ONE!
http://news.wenxuecity.com/messages/200810/news-gb2312-724657.html
华尔街日报:奥巴马和税收引爆点—纳税人能被逼迫多久？ 2008-10-23 11:45:20
奥巴马和税收引爆点——纳税人能被逼迫多久？ 作者：Adam Lerrick，
翻译：浪宽如果选民中的确切中等收入的人群从华盛顿得到的好处超过他们所支付的税款后会发生什么事？经济学家艾伦·麦策和斯科特·理查德27年前提出了这个问题。我们可能会很快知道答案。
奥巴马给选民提供强有力的奖励，以支持较高的税收和更大的政府。这可能是民主党长期以来都在寻找神奇的收入再分配公式。 参议员奥巴马承诺选民以退还税收抵免的形式送给一些人500美元和1,000美元的礼包。这将改变税务人口统计的临界点，即一半以上的选民将从华盛顿收到现金横财,以及绝大多数将受益于增税和政府开支。
在2006年，即最近一次有人口普查数据之年，总共有2亿2千万美国人有资格投票，其中8千9百万（即40％）不支付任何所得税。根据税收政策中心（一家合资企业的布鲁金斯学会与城市研究所）的统计，如果按照奥巴马先生的现金回馈计划，进一步从税务名册中删除1千8百多万选民，这个比例将跃升至49％。更何况，还有另外2千4百万纳税人（11％的选民）将支付最小数额的所得税——少于收入的5％，每年不到1,000美元（译者注：这将使不缴或基本不交缴税的人口上升到60%，足以让任何一位加税并扩充福利的候选人轻易击败对手）。
总之，按照奥巴马的计划，在每5个选民中，有3个支付很少或几乎不支付所得税的人将会因为政府对另外40%已支付95％的联邦总所得税的人群增税而受益。 这种对5％每年收入超过$25万“非常富裕”的、已经支付60％的联邦税的人群的掠夺性的征税，将永远不够用以支付奥巴马先生承诺的庞大计划。
下一步会怎样？一组核心奥巴马支持者——那些赞扬他们的候选人的税收计划“公平”的受过教育的专业人士，将很快转向那些年收入在$10到15万的家庭。出于自身权力和利益的考量，作为人口多数的选民，将会把高税率的阶梯下降，直至年收入在$75,000的家庭。
要计算一个社会对最能赚钱的高收入人群施加多少压力才会迫使他们停止（或减少）生产是很困难的。但奖励是很容易看到效果的。受益于政府计划的选民将推动政府对较高收入的人群征收更高的税率——至少在这些为经济注入活力并创造就业机会和财富的富人们停止工作、停止投资、或搬出该国以前不会停止。
在其他国家，曾试图搞理想的公平社会的地方最后却发现，对不付出辛苦工作的人们的奖励是生产力低下的良方。在1970年代后期和整个20世纪80年代，撒切尔夫人在大不列颠与工会对峙并削减税收，从而恢复经济增长和增加就业机会。几年前在德国社会民主党总理施罗德不顾他本党的教条，力主放松劳工对经济的控制，使停滞结束。另外，最近在法国，使萨尔科齐能掌权的舞台就是恢复经济的弹性。
流程大底相同。高税收、大支出的政策会使经济失去增长的动力。如果政府的开支增长率超过了财政收入，财政和贸易赤字就会剧增，这又进一步导致政府公债增加、税收过重和高失业率。央行试图通过印钞票来解决这一问题，从而导致国际竞争力丧失和货币贬值，直至该系统停摆。然后，收过了惊吓的选民会将权力再还给保守派。
当华盛顿试验欧洲的社会民主主义的时候，经济大潮将不会停止不动，尽管美元作为全球储备货币的作用会为我们赢得一些时间。我们的商品的竞争优势将会丧失，而且一旦失去，就很难再恢复，因为世界上有很多的新兴经济体，它们注重于经济的繁荣而不是再分配，不会让美国轻易地重新夺回其对全球经济的主导地位。 明天的儿童可能会质疑，为什么他们的父母会为了一种混乱的“公平”而卖掉他们与生俱来的天赋——那将意味着就业的减少以及不再为世人瞩目的美国机会。 （Lerrick先生是卡内基梅隆大学经济学教授和美国企业研究所访问学者。）
nothing political :-) AND that article is STILL there!!!
21 Economic Models explained with Cows:
SOCIALISM
You have 2 cows. You give one to your neighbor.
COMMUNISM
You have 2 cows. The State takes both and gives you some
milk.
FASCISM
You have 2 cows. The State takes both and sells you some
milk..
NAZISM
You have 2 cows. The State takes both and shoots you.
BUREAUCRATISM
You have 2 cows. The State takes both, shoots one, milks the
other, and then throws the milk away...
TRADITIONAL CAPITALISM
You have two cows. You sell one and buy a bull. Your herd
multiplies, and the economy grows.
You sell them and retire on the income.
SURREALISM
You have two giraffes. The government requires you to take
harmonica lessons
AN AMERICAN CORPORATION
You have two cows. You sell one, and force the other to produce
the milk of four cows. Later, you hire a consultant to analyze why
the cow has dropped dead.
ENRON VENTURE CAPITALISM
You have two cows. You sell three of them to your publicly listed
company, using letters of credit opened by your brother-in-law at
the bank, then execute a debt/equity swap with an associated
general offer so that you get all four cows back, with a tax
exemption for five cows. The milk rights of the six cows are
transferred via an intermediary to a Cayman Island Company
secretly owned by the majority shareholder who sells the rights
to all seven cows back to your listed company. The annual
report says the company owns eight cows, with an option on one
more. You sell one cow to buy a new president of the United States ,
leaving you with nine cows. No balance sheet provided with the release.
The public then buys your bull.
A FRENCH CORPORATION
You have two cows. You go on strike, organize a riot, and block
the roads, because you want three cows.
A JAPANESE CORPORATION
You have two cows. You redesign them so they are one-tenth
the size of an ordinary cow and produce twenty times the milk.
You then create a clever cow cartoon image called 'Cowkimon'
and market it worldwide.
A GERMAN CORPORATION
You have two cows. You re-engineer them so they live for
100 years, eat once a month, and milk themselves.
AN ITALIAN CORPORATION
You have two cows, but you don't know where they are.
You decide to have lunch.
A RUSSIAN CORPORATION
You have two cows.
You count them and learn you have five cows. You count them
again and learn you have 42 cows.
You count them again and learn you have 2 cows. You stop
counting cows and open another bottle of vodka.
A SWISS CORPORATION
You have 5000 cows. None of them belong to you. You
charge the owners for storing them.
A CHINESE CORPORATION
You have two cows. You have 300 people milking them.
You claim that you have full employment, and high bovine
productivity. You arrest the newsman who reported the
real situation.
AN INDIAN CORPORATION
You have two cows. You worship them.
A BRITISH CORPORATION
You have two cows. Both are mad.
AN IRAQI CORPORATION
Everyone thinks you have lots of cows. You tell them that
you have none. No-one believes you, so they bomb the ****
out of you and invade your country. You still have no cows,
but at least now you are part of Democracy....
A NEW ZEALAND CORPORATION
You have two cows. Business seems pretty good. You close
the office and go for a few beers to celebrate.
AN AUSTRALIAN CORPORATION
You have two cows. The one on the left looks very attractive
SOCIALISM
You have 2 cows. You give one to your neighbor.
COMMUNISM
You have 2 cows. The State takes both and gives you some
milk.
FASCISM
You have 2 cows. The State takes both and sells you some
milk..
NAZISM
You have 2 cows. The State takes both and shoots you.
BUREAUCRATISM
You have 2 cows. The State takes both, shoots one, milks the
other, and then throws the milk away...
TRADITIONAL CAPITALISM
You have two cows. You sell one and buy a bull. Your herd
multiplies, and the economy grows.
You sell them and retire on the income.
SURREALISM
You have two giraffes. The government requires you to take
harmonica lessons
AN AMERICAN CORPORATION
You have two cows. You sell one, and force the other to produce
the milk of four cows. Later, you hire a consultant to analyze why
the cow has dropped dead.
ENRON VENTURE CAPITALISM
You have two cows. You sell three of them to your publicly listed
company, using letters of credit opened by your brother-in-law at
the bank, then execute a debt/equity swap with an associated
general offer so that you get all four cows back, with a tax
exemption for five cows. The milk rights of the six cows are
transferred via an intermediary to a Cayman Island Company
secretly owned by the majority shareholder who sells the rights
to all seven cows back to your listed company. The annual
report says the company owns eight cows, with an option on one
more. You sell one cow to buy a new president of the United States ,
leaving you with nine cows. No balance sheet provided with the release.
The public then buys your bull.
A FRENCH CORPORATION
You have two cows. You go on strike, organize a riot, and block
the roads, because you want three cows.
A JAPANESE CORPORATION
You have two cows. You redesign them so they are one-tenth
the size of an ordinary cow and produce twenty times the milk.
You then create a clever cow cartoon image called 'Cowkimon'
and market it worldwide.
A GERMAN CORPORATION
You have two cows. You re-engineer them so they live for
100 years, eat once a month, and milk themselves.
AN ITALIAN CORPORATION
You have two cows, but you don't know where they are.
You decide to have lunch.
A RUSSIAN CORPORATION
You have two cows.
You count them and learn you have five cows. You count them
again and learn you have 42 cows.
You count them again and learn you have 2 cows. You stop
counting cows and open another bottle of vodka.
A SWISS CORPORATION
You have 5000 cows. None of them belong to you. You
charge the owners for storing them.
A CHINESE CORPORATION
You have two cows. You have 300 people milking them.
You claim that you have full employment, and high bovine
productivity. You arrest the newsman who reported the
real situation.
AN INDIAN CORPORATION
You have two cows. You worship them.
A BRITISH CORPORATION
You have two cows. Both are mad.
AN IRAQI CORPORATION
Everyone thinks you have lots of cows. You tell them that
you have none. No-one believes you, so they bomb the ****
out of you and invade your country. You still have no cows,
but at least now you are part of Democracy....
A NEW ZEALAND CORPORATION
You have two cows. Business seems pretty good. You close
the office and go for a few beers to celebrate.
AN AUSTRALIAN CORPORATION
You have two cows. The one on the left looks very attractive
Tuesday, October 21, 2008
TechCrush Layoff tracker
http://www.techcrunch.com/layoffs/
BTW, I hope you see my effort to push someone's post out of first page... :D
BTW, I hope you see my effort to push someone's post out of first page... :D
Sunday, October 19, 2008
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